Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.302312 2.445116 2.596320 2.769045 2.961773 3.171245 3.417545
2025-06-01 2.077077 2.269649 2.483740 2.741812 3.047804 3.403436 3.854797
2025-06-08 1.946781 2.168735 2.423932 2.743602 3.140133 3.625648 4.281690
2025-06-15 1.863062 2.107996 2.397453 2.771907 3.254890 3.874565 4.762626
2025-06-22 1.762136 2.016295 2.322722 2.728752 3.268313 3.986541 5.066666
2025-06-29 1.674599 1.933835 2.251594 2.681212 3.266899 4.072175 5.337484
2025-07-06 1.592378 1.852532 2.175710 2.619937 3.238597 4.113014 5.540930
2025-07-13 1.559252 1.830695 2.173571 2.654839 3.343754 4.353537 6.091358
2025-07-20 1.533687 1.816489 2.179489 2.699512 3.464533 4.628328 6.746061
2025-07-27 1.510988 1.804321 2.186579 2.744998 3.588722 4.920962 7.490587
2025-08-03 1.468002 1.763079 2.151732 2.727469 3.614363 5.054038 7.958296
2025-08-10 1.427028 1.722676 2.115825 2.705631 3.630491 5.171154 8.416745
2025-08-17 1.386425 1.681868 2.078364 2.680506 3.641292 5.283647 8.901211
2025-08-24 1.348508 1.643324 2.042377 2.655414 3.649939 5.393053 9.407792
2025-08-31 1.321620 1.618802 2.024957 2.657130 3.702487 5.589374 10.177817
2025-09-07 1.304112 1.606456 2.024147 2.683961 3.799181 5.882738 11.297395
2025-09-14 1.267887 1.566656 1.981841 2.643049 3.774319 5.929546 11.753709
2025-09-21 1.232494 1.526974 1.938282 2.597954 3.738696 5.949939 12.142004
2025-09-28 1.195236 1.483656 1.887982 2.539790 3.675753 5.906094 12.321863
2025-10-05 1.185182 1.478638 1.894043 2.572926 3.781176 6.238043 13.866241
2025-10-12 1.178063 1.477460 1.905571 2.615317 3.907041 6.636113 15.892695
2025-10-19 1.171357 1.476562 1.917312 2.658454 4.037987 7.070178 18.409507
2025-10-26 1.149983 1.453656 1.894576 2.641833 4.050329 7.216896 19.777582